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Headlines Statistically Speaking

Sendong and Albay
by Dr. Romulo A. Virola 1
Secretary General, NSCB

Sendong and AlbayStephen Hawking, the theoretical physicist  who was diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS or Lou Gehrig’s disease) at the age of 21 and given just a couple of years more to live, celebrated his 70th birthday yesterday. Wonderful! Prof. Hawking, of course, is the Cambridge University professor who amazed us with his explanations of the Big Bang, black holes and light cones in  “A Brief History of Time”. But you know the latest chismis? When asked by the New Scientist magazine what he thought about most, sabi daw ng Prof. Hawking, “Women. They are a complete mystery!” Lagot siya sa ating friends at the Philippine Commission of Women. Just the same, Happy Birthday, Prof. Hawking, and thank you for showing us that indeed, the human spirit triumphs over adversities!

And did you know that typhoons used to be named only after women! Good that our meteorologists have since become more gender-sensitive and nowadays, typhoons could be called  Ray, Dido, Egay, or Mark!

Unfortunately, while the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) cooperates fully in the provision of data to the NSCB, our meteorologists still have to thoroughly imbibe the culture of information sharing thru its website.  Information has become the most important commodity of the knowledge-based economies during the Third Millennium and Article III, Section 7 of our 1987 Constitution entitles the citizenry access to information on matters of public concern. We therefore must learn to share data to optimize the return on investments in statistics.  We are also  glad that the Freedom of Information Act seems to be receiving now the priority attention it deserves. We at the NSCB used to think that we should charge fees for our statistical information. However, learning lessons from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, we are now promoting the concept that public appreciation for statistics and for statisticians is enhanced when statistical agencies and other data producers provide our stakeholders with easy access2 to data. Wouldn’t it be just wonderful if government agencies, as a matter of practice, and in adherence to the principles of transparency and accountability made all their relevant data accessible to the public?

Statistically Speaking has written about climate change and warned3  that the typhoons had been increasing in number, had become stronger and had become deadlier; that they came the strongest in the fourth quarter and the deadliest in November. We have been experiencing typhoons all our lives, but the change in weather patterns has caught us unprepared to deal with the consequences of our wanton degradation and depletion of our environment and natural resources. According to PAGASA4, the most recent scientific assessments have confirmed that the warming of the climate system is most likely due to human activities, including the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.

Last November 28 to December 9, 2011, the 2011 United Nations Climate Change Conference or the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 17) was held in Durban, South Africa. The conference agreed to a legally binding deal on how to cut emissions, which will be prepared by 2015, and to take effect in 2020.5 Agreements were also reached regarding the creation of a Green Climate Fund and how to distribute it to help poor countries adapt to climate change impacts.

Critics of the conference were quick to voice out that such an agreement is too late.  They recalled that the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)  concluded that the global average surface temperature increased by 0.74°C (1906-2005) and for the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade was projected for a range of emission scenarios.6  Even if the concentration of all greenhouses gas and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of 0.1°C per decade would be expected.

Last Friday, the NSCB hosted a forum where Gov. Joey Sarte Salceda of Albay enlightened us about disaster preparedness, disaster mitigation, disaster response. He posited that since those who had less in life had more in risks,  “ it is the primordial duty of society and its state and the civic duty of its elite and the markets they control to save the vulnerable from disasters, from climate change.” According to Gov. Salceda, climate change adaptation for all local government units is imperative. He informed us about the 115-strong Team Albay whose structural approach to managing disaster risk and vulnerability hinged on a risk-based assistance that offered no perverse incentives and stressed the importance of preserving the dignity of victims ensuring that they do not develop a mendicant mentality as help is given to them. Holding us  captive with his passionate discourse on the subject, controlling our urge to use the bathroom after a heavy lunch.

 

greenGovernor Salceda impressed us with the zero casualty record  from major disasters that hit Albay from 1994 to 2010 except in 2006. He related how members of Team Albay  spent their Christmas and New Year  producing potable water and operating health stations for  the victims of Sendong in Cagayan de Oro.  We take our hats off to the Albay model of governance and we surely need the likes of Gov. Salceda to lead our country.

Meanwhile, what do other/latest typhoon-related statistics say?

 

smiley1From 1948 to 2011, the most number of  tropical cyclones (TC)  entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in 1993 with 32, followed by 30 in 1964, and 27 in 1971. (Tables 1 and 2)

 

1

smiley1By month, on the average, the most number of TCs come in July, followed by August, September, October and November. (Tables 1 and 2)

 

 

 

2

greenThe least number of TCs enter the PAR during the first quarter of the year, particularly in March.  If this historical fact  holds true in 2012, we can have at least a temporary respite from the ravages of climate change. (Tables 1 and 2)

 

 

3

greenIn 2010, only  11 TCs  entered the PAR, same as in 1998, an El Niño year, posting the lowest TCs occurrence  since 1948. (Tables 1 and 2)

 

 

smiley1However, in 2011,  19 TCs entered the PAR. The heaviest casualties in terms of loss of human lives resulted from Tropical Storm (TS) Sendong (international name: Washi)  in December with 1257 deaths, 13,337 damaged houses and PhP 1.4 billion damage to properties; Typhoon (TY) Pedring (international name: Nesat) in September, that submerged most parts of Central Luzon particularly Bulacan with 85 deaths, 7,491 damaged houses and PhP15.6 billion damage to properties; and TS Juaning (international name: Nock-Ten) in July  in Bicol with 77 deaths, including very sadly,  the mother of Gov. Salceda, 11,196 damaged houses and PhP4.4 billion damage to properties. (Table 3).

 

4

smiley1Sendong is one of the deadliest tropical cyclones to have hit Mindanao since 1947.  It caught the Mindanaoans by surprise, considering that the TCs that made landfall in Mindanao from 1945 to 2010  numbered only 35 during the last 65 years and only 6 during the last 15 years. (Table 4 and  Figure 1).

 

 

5

smiley1However, just like Pedring and Quiel, it was not the hagupit or lakas ng hangin of Sendong that caused much of the destruction. It was the heavy rains that poured plus other factors, some man-made.  According to PAGASA, Sendong dumped 142 millimeters of rainfall in just 12 hours7 as compared to the 1977 to 2000 climatological average of 105.8 mm of rainfall for the whole month of December as recorded in the Lumbia Airport Synoptic Station of PAGASA, Misamis Oriental or the 99.9 mm as recorded in the Cagayan de Oro Weather Station, in Misamis Oriental from 1971 to 2000  But what are  the  factors that aggravated the destruction.  Could it be illegal logging?  For sure, when heavy rainfall pours on a denuded mountainous area,  it will be transformed into a superhighway with no speed limit to the water crashing anything on its path. How many more deaths  will it take before  the illegal loggers curtail their greed? (Tables 5 and 6).

 

smiley1Actually, neither Sendong nor the deadly Ondoy in 2009 was  the wettest tropical cyclone that entered the PAR from 1951-20118.  The wettest decade occurred between 1971 and 1980 when 9 of the 18 wettest TCs occurred.  This could very well be because of the 0.74°C increase in the global average surface temperature since experts say that increased atmospheric temperature causes greater water vapor content and  leads to larger rainfall anomalies. Man has ravaged our forests. Man has degraded our environment. For too long. What could we expect? (Table 7).

 

smiley1On the average from 1971 to 2000, the climatological 6normals  compiled by the PAGASA on amount of rainfall indicate that for the months of January to April, the highest rainfall values were recorded by stations in  Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur; Surigao, Surigao del Norte; Catarman, Northern Samar; Infanta, Quezon; and Virac Radar, Catanduanes. On the other hand, very little rainfall is expected in Vigan, Ilocos Sur and in Laoag City, Ilocos Norte. 

            For the months of May to September, the highest average rainfall  values were recorded by stations in  Baguio City, Benguet; and in Iba, Zambales. Little rainfall values were monitored in Tagbilaran City, Bohol; and Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental.

            For October to December, the highest rainfall values were recorded by Infanta, Quezon; and Daet, Camarines Norte. The little rainfall values monitored during the months of January to April in Vigan, Ilocos Sur and in Laoag City, Ilocos Norte are actually a continuation of the little rainfall values in those areas for the months of October to December.

          When we make vacation our plans, therefore,  these statistics should warn us what we can expect to happen and be prepared to carry  our umbrellas in our luggage. (Table 8)

On a longer term basis, PAGASA has calculated the projected changes in  mean temperature and in rainfall by selected provinces.

 

7

smiley1For the hot months of March, April and May, the highest changes in temperature are projected to occur in Pampanga, Zambales, Ilocos Norte, and Pangasinan during the period 2006-2035. During the period 2036-2065, the biggest changes will occur in Aklan, Northern Samar, Cebu, Iloilo, and Camarines Norte.  For 2071-2100, it will be in Samar, Northern Samar, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Aklan, and Camarines Norte., Even the magic of medicine cannot sustain the youth of our generation  during that period, but for those who expect to be alive then, you had better plan well where you want to build your houses. (Table 9)

 

8

smiley1And for the wettest months of June, July, and August, the biggest increment to the amount of rainfall is expected to happen in Albay, Camarines Norte, and Quezon during the period 2006-2035; in Eastern Samar, Albay, and Leyte during the period 2036-2065; and in North Cotabato, Agusan del Sur, and Agusan del Norte during the period 2071-2100. Obviously, Gov. Salceda  with  his Disaster Risk Reduction Program, is just preparing his constituents adequately for the future! (Table 10)

 

smiley1In terms of level of the changes in temperature and rainfall, PAGASA expects that all areas of the Philippines will get warmer especially during the summer months. Mean temperatures are expected  to rise by 0.9o C  to 1.1o C in 2020 and by 1.8 o C in 2050. Generally, reduction in rainfall is expected in most parts of the country during the summer months but rainfall increase is likely during the southwest monsoon season (June, July, August) until the transition season (September, October, November)  in most areas of Luzon and Visayas, but there is generally decreasing trend in rainfall in Mindanao, especially by 2050.9 The young can probably handle these weird climate changes but not many of my friends.

As Governor Salceda had said, climate change adaptation is a must because climate change is unequivocally on us. But no one can stop my two-year old apo from continuing to plead, “Rain, Rain, go away, little Lorenz wants to play”. Poor Lorenz. The rains will just not go away, and the typhoons will continue to come our way.

Nonetheless,  despite Sendong, and because of the Albay model, we have reason to be hopeful for a better 2012! Happy Three Kings to everyone!

 

Reactions and views are welcome thru email to the author at ra.virola@nscb.gov.ph

 

_______________
1 Secretary General of the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) and Chairman of the Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC). He holds a Ph. D. in Statistics from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, U.S.A. and has taught mathematics and statistics at the University of the Philippines. He is also a past president of the Philippine Statistical Association. This article was co-written with Edward Eugenio P. Lopez-Dee and Mark Rex S. Romaraog, Statistical Coordination Officers, of the NSCB. The authors thank Noel S. Nepomuceno, Jessamyn O. Encarnacion Candido J. Astrologo, Jr., Libertie Masculino, Sonny U. Gutierrez, Albert Garcia, Andrea Baylon, and Edgard E. Enrado for the assistance in the preparation of the article. The views expressed in the article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the NSCB.

2 On this subject, the NSCB has issued Resolution No. 11 Series of 1999 “General Pricing Policy of the Philippine Statistical System (PSS)”, Resolution No. 1 Series of 2006 “Approving and Adopting the Framework on the Provision of Statistical Products and Services of the Philippine Statistical System”, and Resolution No. 5 Series of 2011 “Approving and Adopting the General Policy on the Production, Release, and Dissemination of Microdata in the Philippine Statistical System”. The NSCB also created thru Memorandum Order No. 001 Series of 2009 an Interagency Committee on Statistical Information Management and Dissemination chaired by Director Candido J. Astrologo of the NSCB, co-chaired by Director Valentino Abuan of the NSO, and with members from the BSP, BAS, BLES, SRTC, FNRI, NCC, NEDA, PIA, PMS, PCCI, and the TUCP.

3 http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/2008/081408_rav_typhoons.asp; http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/2009/030909_rav_climatechange.asp; and, http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/2009/110909_rav_mrsr_typhoons.asp

4 Climate Change in the Philippines. http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/climate_change/Introduction.html. Date Accessed: January 9, 2012.

5 Richard Black. Climate Talks with late Deal. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16124670. Date Accessed: January 9, 2012

6 Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/spms3.html. Date Accessed: January 9, 2012

7 Ellalyn B. DeVera. PAGASA: Typhoon's 142-mm rain in 12 hours 'super heavy. : http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/345284/pagasa-typhoons-142mm-rain-12-hours-super-heavy. Accessed date: January 7, 2012

8 According to Wikipedia, the wettest tropical cyclone in the Philippines occurred in July 1911 in Baguio City, with 1168.4 mm of precipitation.

9 Climate Change in the Philippines. http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/climate_change/Introduction.html. Date Accessed: January 9, 2012.

 

 

 

 

Table 1: Number of Tropical Cyclones in the Philippine Area of Responsibilty (PAR)
1948 to 2011

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annual Total Rank
1948 1 0 0 0 1 0 3 1 3 2 6 3 20 26
1949 1 0 0 0 0 2 5 2 4 3 3 2 22 15
1950 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 2 3 2 1 14 56
1951 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 4 2 1 1 2 13 59
1952 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 3 4 4 4 5 27 3
1953 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 5 2 2 3 2 18 37
1954 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 6 2 3 3 1 18 37
1955 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 3 1 4 1 1 15 52
1956 0 0 1 2 0 0 4 4 5 1 5 3 25 5
1957 2 0 0 1 0 2 1 2 3 3 1 0 15 52
1958 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 3 2 3 0 17 41
1959 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 4 2 4 3 2 18 37
1960 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 6 1 3 0 2 19 31
1961 1 1 1 0 1 4 5 2 4 1 1 2 23 10
1962 0 1 0 0 2 0 4 6 4 1 3 0 21 20
1963 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 2 3 1 0 2 16 47
1964 0 0 0 0 2 1 9 5 5 3 3 2 30 2
1965 2 1 1 0 2 2 6 2 3 1 1 0 21 20
1966 0 0 0 1 3 1 7 1 3 2 2 2 22 15
1967 0 1 1 1 1 2 4 5 0 2 3 1 21 20
1968 0 1 0 0 0 2 2 3 3 1 3 0 15 52
1969 0 0 0 1 1 0 4 2 4 1 1 1 15 52
1970 0 1 0 0 0 3 2 4 4 4 2 1 21 20
1971 1 0 1 3 3 3 4 2 3 5 2 0 27 3
1972 2 0 0 0 0 2 4 2 4 1 1 1 17 41
1973 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 1 3 1 0 12 62
1974 1 0 0 0 0 3 4 4 2 5 2 2 23 10
1975 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 3 2 1 14 56
1976 1 1 0 1 1 2 4 3 4 0 2 3 22 15
1977 1 0 0 0 1 1 4 2 4 2 2 2 19 31
1978 0 0 0 1 0 3 1 7 6 4 2 1 25 5
1979 0 0 1 1 2 1 3 3 3 4 2 2 22 15
1980 0 1 1 1 3 2 4 3 2 2 3 1 23 10
1981 0 1 0 0 0 3 5 4 3 2 3 2 23 10
1982 0 0 2 0 1 0 5 4 4 2 0 2 20 26
1983 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 4 6 4 3 23 10
1984 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 7 1 4 3 1 19 31
1985 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 3 0 1 17 41
1986 0 1 0 1 1 2 3 2 1 4 3 3 21 20
1987 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 2 2 2 1 16 47
1988 1 0 0 0 1 3 3 0 3 6 2 1 20 26
1989 1 0 0 0 1 2 6 1 2 3 2 1 19 31
1990 0 0 0 0 4 3 2 3 4 1 2 1 20 26
1991 0 0 1 1 1 1 4 2 4 2 2 1 19 31
1992 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 5 1 3 2 0 16 47
1993 0 1 0 2 1 2 5 5 6 4 2 4 32 1
1994 1 0 0 1 2 2 6 4 3 3 1 1 24 9
1995 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 3 4 4 0 2 16 47
1996 0 1 0 1 2 0 3 2 4 2 2 0 17 41
1997 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 0 1 2 1 14 56
1998 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 2 1 1 11 63
1999 1 1 0 2 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 16 47
2000 0 0 0 0 3 0 4 2 3 3 2 1 18 37
2001 0 1 0 1 1 2 4 1 2 1 3 1 17 41
2002 1 0 2 0 1 2 5 2 0 0 0 0 13 59
2003 0 0 0 1 3 1 4 6 4 3 2 1 25 5
2004 0 1 1 1 2 4 1 3 4 3 4 1 25 5
2005 0 0 1 1 1 1 3 2 4 1 2 1 17 41
2006 1 0 1 0 1 1 4 3 2 3 2 2 20 26
2007 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 3 2 3 0 13 59
2008 0 0 0 1 4 1 3 3 4 0 4 1 21 20
2009 1 1 0 0 3 1 4 1 4 4 2 1 22 15
2010 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 4 2 2 0 0 11 63
2011 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 1 4 1 0 1 19 31
                             
TOTAL 27 19 18 29 67 97 212 198 191 160 132 84 1,234  
                           
RANK 10 11 12 9 8 6 1 2 3 4 5 7    

Sources:
1948 to 2009 Data, PAGASA, Typhoon2000.com, NDRRMC

2010 Data, Typhoon2000.com (URL: http://www.maybagyo.com/season10s.htm, Accessed date: January 4, 2012), NDRRMC

2011 Data, Typhoon2000.com (URL: http://www.maybagyo.com/season11s.htm, Accessed data: January 4, 2012), NDRRMC

 

Table 2: Average Number of Tropical Cyclones in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual
1948-1950 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.7 1.3 3.0 2.7 3.7 2.0 0.7 1.7 8.0 8.3 18.7
1951-1960 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.3 1.8 4.0 2.5 2.7 2.4 1.8 1.1 2.2 8.3 6.9 18.5
1961-1970 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.8 4.7 3.2 3.3 1.7 1.9 1.1 1.2 3.4 11.2 4.7 20.5
1971-1980 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.8 3.1 3.2 3.3 2.9 1.9 1.3 1.2 3.5 9.6 6.1 20.4
1981-1990 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.9 1.7 3.5 3.0 2.8 3.3 2.1 1.6 0.8 2.7 9.3 7.0 19.8
1991-2000 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.1 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.7 2.9 9.4 5.3 18.3
2001-2010 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.7 1.3 3.1 2.8 2.9 1.9 2.2 0.8 1.2 3.5 8.8 4.9 18.4
2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 6.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 6.0 11.0 2.0 19.0
                                   
1948-2011 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.3 1.0 3.0 9.4 5.9 19.3

Sources of Basic Data:

1948 to 2009 Data, PAGASA, Typhoon2000.com, NDRRMC

2010 Data, Typhoon2000.com (URL: http://www.maybagyo.com/season10s.htm, Accessed date: January 4, 2012), NDRRMC

2011 Data, Typhoon2000.com (URL: http://www.maybagyo.com/season11s.htm, Accessed data: January 4, 2012), NDRRMC

 

Table 3: 2011 Top 10 Philippine Destructive Tropical Cyclones

Date

Destructive Tropical Cyclones Affected Areas Casualties Affected Evacuated Totally Damaged Houses Damaged to Properties
Families Persons Families Persons
December 15 - 18 TS Sendong (Sitrep 23 a/o 30 Dec 2011) VI, VII, IX, X, XI, Caraga, ARMM 1257 113,651 721,844 97,019 525,945 13,337 1,382,008,527.00
September 24 - 28 Typhoon Pedring  I, II, III, IV-A, IVB, V, VI, CAR & NCR 85 667,602 3,105,355 97,797 387,641 7,491 15,552,586,957.49
July 25 - 28 TS Juaning III, IV-A, IV-B, V, VI, VII,VIII & NCR  77 255,129 1,285,906 123,394 614,688 11,196 4,441,798,208.89
August 21 - 29 Typhoon Mina I, II, V, VI, CAR, NCR 36 97,006 411,468 3,869 17,691 159 2,089,349,409.79
May 6 - 11  TS Bebeng III, IV-A, IV-B, NCR, V, VII and VIII  35 83,632 431,837 8,354 42,855 64 2,253,233,275.00
September 29 - October 02 Typhoon Quiel I, II, III & CAR 17 323,303 1,489,535 24,565 106,764 5,553 115,075,527.81
June 21 - 25 TS Falcon I, II, III, NCR 12 389,348 1,792,376 4,958 24,243 165 646,851,793.75
October 10 - 14 TS Ramon IV-B, VI, VII, VIII, X, XII & CARAGA 10 17,971 88,506 1,385 6,837 29 -
July 28 – August 5 TS Kabayan I, III, IV-A, VI & NCR 8 23,238 93,888 742 3,402 11 2,500,000.00
May 20 - 28 Typhoon Chedeng NCR, II, V, IX, X, XII & ARMM 4 91,767 446,907 49,454 226,166 83 18,933,499.00
  Grand Total 14 regions 1,541 2,062,647 9,867,622 411,537 1,956,232 38,088 26,502,337,198.73

Source: National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC)

 

Table 4: Worst Typhoons of Mindanao, Philippines
1947 - 2002

Name Period of Occurrence Highest Wind Speed Recorded Place Recorded Deaths Damage in Billion Pesos
1. NITANG (Ike) 1/ August 31 - September 4, 1984 220 kph Surigao 1,363 - 3,000 4.100
2. RUPING (Mike) 2/ November 10 - 14, 1990 220 kph Cebu 748 10.846
3. INING (Louise) 3/ November 15 - 20, 1964 240 kph Cebu 400 0.010
4. TITANG (Kate) 4/ October 16 - 23, 1970 095 kph Cuyo Island 631 1.750
5. PURING (Nell)  December 25 - 28, 1993 150 kph Surigao 45 0.152
6. BISING (Nelson)  March 22 - 29, 1982 100 kph Maasin 288 0.590
7. NANANG (Lingling) 5/ November 6 - 9, 2001 90 kph over water 236 3.200
8. AURING (Lola)  January 22 - 25, 1975 110 kph Mactan* 39 0.016
9. LUCY November 25 - December 1, 1962 121 kph Cuyo Island 5 (?) UD**
10. BEBENG (Sally) 6/ March 1 - 4, 1967 120 kph Surigao NA NA

Legend:
1/ - NDCC and Reuters estimate 70-80% of houses and buildings in Surigao City were severely damaged or totally wiped-out.
2/ - The country's costliest typhoon up-to-date.
3/ - Clocked an estimated 280-290 kph over water just before making landfall just south of Siargao Is., Surigao del Norte.
4/ - A small and concentrated typhoon with only a radius of more or less 50 kms of typhoon strength winds (> 120 kph).
5/ - Never made landfall in any part of Mindanao but brought severe damage and 236 fatalities to Northern Mindanao, particularly the island province of Camiguin.
6/ - Was already weakening as it approached Surigao del Norte after ravaging the Island-Republic of Palau. It dissipated at Sulu Sea.

* - Mactan-Cebu International Airport, Lapu-Lapu City, Cebu.
** - JTWC puts $ 5,000,000.00 for damage.

NA - Data not available
UD - Undetermined.
(?) - Unofficial figure by JTWC.

over water – typhoon's strongest winds were recorded while typhoon was still at sea but is closely approaching land.
Underlined figures - are courtesy of PAGASA.
Bold and italicized figures - are combined information courtesy of NDCC, reliefweb.com, Manila Bulletin, Reuters and Unisys. The rest of the figures came from NDCC and/or Typhoon2000.com

Notes:
> 8 of the 10 worst typhoons of Mindanao made landfall in Surigao del Norte and its outlying islands. TITANG (Kate) made its landfall at Digos, Davao del Sur, while NANANG (LingLing) never made landfall in Mindanao.
> 6 of the 10 worst typhoons in Mindanao were only tropical storms while passing over the island, usually the northern provinces.
> INING - This short-lived super typhoon permanently reduced the output of Bacuag, Surigao del Norte's coconut production.
> TITANG - Forming just near the equator, this typhoon took a westerly track and entered Davao Gulf. It hit Digos with winds up to 200 kph, but just 48 kilometers north east of Digos, Davao City only recorded winds not greater than 46 kph, attesting to the typhoon's small and concentrated size. It ravaged through a wide expanse of land in Central Mindanao, Lanao and Zamboanga Provinces causing it to decelerate. TITANG remained an intact tropical storm just south of Negros after exiting Zamboanga del Norte and became a typhoon again at South China Sea. This is the only tropical cyclone in the Philippine typhoon records that has directly crossed through more than one province in the island of Mindanao.
> NITANG - Surigao City was almost leveled as viewed from the air on helicopters of the Philippine Air Force. The National Disaster Coordinating Council declared Surigao City, "…a total devastation." TIME magazine (2nd issue of September 1984) quotes, "…It could be a miracle to see one house intact and unscathed in the city of Surigao after Typhoon Ike…"
> NANANG - Heavy rains from this tropical storm loosened the earth at Hibok-Hibok Volcano in Camiguin Island sending a deluge of mud and rocks to the town of Mahinog, wiping out villages and burying hundreds in debris. NANANG never made landfall in any area of Mindanao (instead it went through the Visayas) but wreaked havoc mostly in the Northern regions of the island.

Sources: www.ndcc.gov.ph , www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph , www.typhoon2000.com, http://weather.unisys.com , www.reliefweb.com , www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

Compiled by Dominic Alojado with additional information by David Michael V. Padua of Typhoon2000.com (05.18.05).

Source: http://www.maybagyo.com/stormstats/WorstMindanaoTyphoons.htm, Accessed date: January 6, 2012

 

Table 5: Climatological Averages of Station 747, Lumbia Airport, Misamis Oriental
1977 to 2000

Month

Rainfall (mm) Number of Rainy Days Temperature (Degree Celcius)
Max Min Mean
January 82.8 10 29.5 21.3 25.4
February 65 7 30.1 21.1 25.6
March 44.8 6 31.1 21.4 26.2
April 58.1 5 32.3 22.3 27.3
May 109.8 10 32.7 23.1 27.9
June 207.7 17 31.8 22.8 27.3
July 244.1 18 31.4 22.3 26.8
August 205.2 15 31.9 22.4 27.1
Sept 204.4 15 31.6 22.2 26.9
October 188.1 16 31.2 22.2 26.7
November 138.6 11 30.8 22 26.4
December 105.8 10 29.9 21.6 25.7
           
ANNUAL 1654.4 140 31.2 22 26.6

Prepared by: PAGASA/CAB/CDS

Source: PAGASA

 

Table 6: Climatological Averages of Station 748, Cagayan de Oro, Misamis Oriental
1971 to 2000

Month

Rainfall (mm) Number of Rainy Days Temperature (Degree Celcius)
Max Min Mean
January 93.7 10 31 22.4 26.7
February 59.2 8 31.4 22.2 26.8
March 52.1 6 32.3 22.5 27.4
April 45.8 5 33.2 23.4 28.3
May 84.1 10 33.9 24.2 29.1
June 207.6 17 33.1 23.8 28.4
July 212.1 17 32.9 23.4 28.2
August 192.2 16 33.3 23.4 28.3
Sept 200.0 16 32.9 23.4 28.2
October 189.9 16 32.7 23.3 28
November 131.5 12 32.3 23.1 27.7
December 99.9 11 31.5 22.8 27.2
           
ANNUAL 1568.0 144 32.5 23.2 27.9

Prepared by: PAGASA/CAB/CDS

Source: PAGASA

 

Table 7: Greatest 24-Hr. Rainfall during the Passage of Tropical Cyclones
1951 - 2010

TC Name Station Greatest 24-HR Rainfall (MM) Date of Occurrence Duration
TY Feria Baguio 1085.8 07/04/01 Jul 02 - Jul 05
Ty Iliang Baguio 994.6 10/14/98 Oct 10 - Oct 16
TY Trining Baguio 979.4 10/17/67 Oct 14 - Oct 19
TY Susan Baguio 781.4 10/11/74 Oct 09 - Oct 12
TY Trining Baguio 760 10/27/91 Oct 20 0 Oct 31
TY Ditang Baguio 730.3 05/15/80 May 10 -  May 20
TS Chedeng Dagupan 722.6 05/27/03 May 25 - May 29
TYGading Baguio 709.6 07/09/86 Jul 06 - Jul 10
TY Aring  Baguio 698.7 11/05/80 Nov 01 - Nov 07
TY Wening Baguio 678.8 10/28/74 Oct 25 - Oct 29
TD Sisang Alabat 673 12/27/75 Dec 26 - Dec 28
TY Nitang Baguio 649.7 09/28/68 Sep - 23 Oct 01
TY Didang Baguio 605.3 05/25/76 May 12 - May 27
TS Aring Masbate 603.5 12/04/76 Dec 02 - Dec 07
TY Reming Surigao 564.7 11/18/68 Nov 12 - Nov 22
TY Cora Baguio 546.6 11/17/53 Nov 12 - Nov 19
TY Osang Baguio 536.3 07/25/80 Jul 20 - Jul 26
TS Miding Baguio 534.2 08/23/78 Aug 20 - Aug 27

Source: Climate Data Section, Climatological and Agrometeorology, PAGASA, DOST

 

 

Table 8:Climatological Normals by Month and by Selected Stations for Rainfall (mm)
1971 to 2000

LEVELS   RANK
Highest Rainfall Value = 1, Lowest Rainfall Value = 43
Sampling Stations Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Ambulong, Batangas 19.9 9.9 24.2 37 125 238.1 358.7 340.2 268.1 257.6 166.2 106   33 34 31 33 29 20 12 13 17 24 24 26
Aparri, Cagayan 106.3 53.9 40.7 31.6 110.5 134.7 171.8 194.5 248.3 359.5 329.5 185.1   19 27 28 35 31 39 34 19 19 8 10 18
Baguio City, Benguet 12.1 11.7 29.3 92.3 354.7 436.4 838.4 911.8 581 461.8 124.6 23.7   36 32 30 16 1 2 2 2 2 4 32 39
Baler, Aurora 202.1 156.2 198.3 231.3 314.6 276.9 266.5 187.5 308.7 494.4 397.3 330.4   12 10 4 3 2 10 16 23 12 2 7 10
Basco, Batanes 198.4 105.8 92.4 59.8 200.9 224.6 273.2 429.7 331.9 429.2 297.4 227.2   13 14 14 21 8 22 15 10 11 5 13 14
Butuan City, Agusan del Norte 308 211.8 149.8 107.2 104.8 135.1 157.5 105.1 1140.2 195.2 192.8 218.8   6 7 8 14 34 37 38 42 1 32 21 15
Cabanatuan, Nueva Ecija 8.3 9.8 17.3 29.7 179.1 250.4 370.4 380.7 307.3 207.3 104.1 40.6   38 35 36 38 13 18 11 12 14 30 37 38
Cagayan de Oro, Misamis Oriental 97.3 59.2 52.1 45.8 84.1 207.6 212.1 192.2 200 189.9 131.5 99.9   21 22 22 29 37 27 26 21 32 33 31 30
Calapan, Oriental Mindoro 93 56 70.4 114.8 156.4 219.5 241.8 189.6 218.9 325.5 244.5 1211.3   23 23 17 13 17 24 20 22 26 9 16 1
Catarman, Northern Samar 444.2 278 229.8 142.9 129.3 205.5 192.8 153.1 203.1 314.8 523.2 573.9   3 3 3 6 25 28 30 32 31 12 4 5
Catbalogan, Western Samar  231.5 168.9 149.1 117.5 145.1 231.2 266.4 182.1 263.5 303.2 323.3 298.2   9 8 9 12 20 21 17 24 18 15 11 11
Coron, Palawan 21.1 10.1 11.6 31.6 192.1 348.6 486.7 481.8 422 280.2 102.8 78.1   32 33 40 35 9 6 6 8 4 19 38 32
Cuyo, Palawan 9.7 1.1 16.5 44.2 191.5 360.7 413 405.3 365.3 296.2 138.4 58   37 43 37 30 10 4 8 11 8 17 29 36
Daet, Camarines Norte 263 159.1 145.8 128.2 139 186.8 237.3 150.2 241.1 491 528.1 617.2   8 9 10 10 23 30 22 34 21 3 3 3
Dagupan City, Pangasinan 7.8 6.1 17.5 52.8 204.4 331.8 536.1 608.6 362.2 200.6 53.4 10.4   39 39 35 25 7 7 4 4 9 31 41 41
Davao City, Davao Del Sur 124.8 99.8 92.3 141.1 176.5 207.7 148.1 181 184.3 178.3 135.3 103.5   17 15 15 7 14 25 40 26 33 38 30 29
Dipolog, Zamboanga del Norte 139.3 86.1 68.5 100.3 146.4 238.8 207 201.5 203.3 298.2 386.8 242.7   16 17 18 15 19 19 27 18 30 16 9 13
Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental 80.2 54.5 41.6 48.6 70.5 122.5 116.3 110.1 141.5 164.5 142.6 103.6   26 25 27 28 41 41 42 41 41 39 27 28
General Santos, South Cotabato 67 60.6 41.7 55.4 65.9 114.5 101.4 82 85.4 101.8 82.2 67.7   27 21 26 24 42 42 43 43 43 43 39 33
Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur 728.2 516.3 446.7 322.3 240.6 262.6 203.3 180.6 204.4 261.2 389.9 539.1   1 1 1 1 4 14 29 27 28 23 8 6
Infanta, Quezon 330.8 231.1 181.7 189.8 229.5 264.7 273.3 181.8 285.1 664.7 611.8 705.8   5 4 5 4 6 12 14 25 16 1 1 2
Laoag City, Ilocos Norte 6.6 1.7 3.1 21.5 164.4 275.7 411.4 556.6 377.9 143.6 30.4 5   40 42 43 40 15 11 9 5 7 41 43 42
Lumbia Airport, Misamis Oriental 82.8 65 44.8 58.1 109.8 207.7 244.1 205.2 204.4 188.1 138.6 105.8   25 20 24 23 32 25 18 17 28 35 28 27
Iba, Zambales 3.3 5.2 16 31.6 297.8 489.2 840 1019.3 544.7 273.7 74.5 14.9   43 40 38 35 3 1 1 1 3 20 40 40
Mactan International Airport, Cebu 108.9 77.8 56.7 48.9 78.87 183.1 181.3 144.7 168.8 182.2 155 133.2   18 19 20 27 39 31 32 37 36 36 26 23
Maasin, Southern Leyte 205 137 105.1 68.9 65.1 126.1 167 162.5 174.7 223.5 196.3 198.8   11 11 13 20 43 40 35 29 35 27 20 17
Malaybalay, Bukidnon 181.3 133.3 131 129.4 231.1 316.9 329.4 301.4 302.8 315.6 187.1 181.5   14 12 11 8 5 8 13 14 15 11 22 19
Masbate, Masbate 165.6 98 87 59.7 93.5 156.7 205.1 158.7 230.7 236.4 253.6 275.6   15 16 16 22 35 34 28 31 25 25 14 12
Puerto Princesa, Palawan 29.5 23.7 32.1 42.7 128.1 178.6 163.9 159.8 181.8 222.3 205.4 146.1   30 29 29 32 26 32 37 30 34 28 19 22
Romblon, Romblon 97.3 54.7 48.9 69.2 106.1 223.3 237.8 193 235 311.2 232.6 206.2   21 24 23 19 33 23 21 20 23 14 18 16
Roxas City, Aklan 87.6 44.9 56.5 72.2 121.9 254.1 235.2 216.9 241.1 294.8 253.4 177.2   24 28 21 17 30 16 24 16 21 18 15 21
San Francisco, Quezon 46.4 19.3 21.6 19.4 89.3 191.9 221.6 148.6 148.8 138.5 111.6 179.9   28 30 33 41 36 29 25 36 39 42 34 20
San Jose, Occidental Mindoro 5.3 6.8 14.1 27.2 142 380.2 482.1 460.2 405.8 262.3 105.8 65   41 37 39 39 21 3 7 9 5 21 36 34
Sangley Point, Cavite 17.4 6.7 8.3 15.8 126.1 251.1 380.7 481.9 308.3 224.2 108.8 56.7   35 38 41 42 28 17 10 7 13 26 35 37
Science Garden, Quezon City 19.5 8.9 22.9 35.1 160.4 311.6 504.1 526.8 391.7 312 155.5 83.9   34 36 32 34 16 9 5 6 6 13 25 31
Surigao, Surigao del Norte 600.8 444.7 334.6 235.6 126.4 140.3 164.8 131.5 149 261.6 447.2 524.9   2 2 2 2 27 36 36 38 38 22 6 7
Tacloban City, Leyte 288.5 215.6 173.2 129.4 140.2 177.6 177.1 150 167.9 218.5 297.9 360   7 6 7 8 22 33 33 35 37 29 12 9
Tagbilaran City, Bohol 103.1 78.7 68.2 69.6 75.1 112.3 118.8 111.8 135.5 178.7 182 126.3   20 18 19 18 40 43 41 40 42 37 23 24
Tuguegarao, Cagayan 27.6 13.9 21.4 42.9 136.5 141.8 191.7 242.7 216.7 324.4 233.2 114.4   31 31 34 31 24 35 31 15 27 10 17 25
Vigan, Ilocos Sur 3.5 2.9 3.2 12 182.2 357.7 550.5 642.2 362.1 154.3 33.2 4.9   42 41 42 43 12 5 3 3 10 40 42 43
Virac Radar, Catanduanes 374.8 226.2 176.7 183.8 184 263.8 236.8 167.2 244.1 417.4 543.7 598.5   4 5 6 5 11 13 23 28 20 6 2 4
Virac Synop, Catanduanes 219.1 120.4 128.9 127 154.7 261 242 152.3 234.6 374.9 453.1 450   10 13 12 11 18 15 19 33 24 7 5 8
Zamboanga City, Zamboanga del Sur 43.6 54.1 44.4 50.6 80.2 134.9 154.8 131.1 144.6 188.8 120.8 62.2   29 26 25 26 38 38 39 39 40 34 33 35

Note: Climatological Normals refer to the period averages for a uniform and relative long period comprising at least 3 consecutive 10-year period.

Source: PAGASA

 

 

Table 9: Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Temperature (ºC) by Province

Province OBSERVED (1971-2000) 2020 (2006-2035) 2050 (2036-2065) 2100 (2071-2100)   RANK of Province for MAM
Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Temperature, Highest Change in Seasonal Mean Temperature = 1
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON 2020 2050 2085
ILOCOS NORTE 25.3 28.1 28.3 27.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.8   1 15 3
ILOCOS SUR 23.1 25.7 25.4 24.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.8 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.7   5 33 23
PANGASINAN 25.0 27.4 26.9 26.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 2.0 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.9   1 15 11
ABRA 24.5 27.4 27.2 26.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.8 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.7   5 15 11
BENGUET 19.4 21.9 22.0 21.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.8 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.7   5 33 23
IFUGAO 22.2 25.6 25.8 24.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.6   25 33 37
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 22.7 26.0 26.1 24.9 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.8 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.7   5 33 23
CAGAYAN 24.5 28.1 28.9 27.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.7   5 7 23
ISABELA 24.1 27.9 28.7 26.8 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.7   5 7 23
NUEVA VIZCAYA 22.3 25.1 25.4 24.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.7 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.6   5 15 11
BULACAN 25.6 27.9 27.1 26.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.5   5 15 37
PAMPANGA 26.0 28.3 27.5 27.1 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.8 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.8   1 15 23
ZAMBALES 26.3 28.3 27.4 27.2 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.9 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.9   1 15 11
CAVITE 25.7 28.2 27.3 26.9 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.8 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.7   5 15 23
LAGUNA 25.0 27.5 27.5 26.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.4   25 15 23
QUEZON 25.1 27.2 27.6 26.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.6 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.4   25 15 23
RIZAL  25.4 27.9 27.6 26.8 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.6 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.4   5 15 37
METRO MANILA 26.1 28.8 28.0 27.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.5   5 15 23
ALBAY 25.6 27.2 27.8 27.1 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.6 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.4   25 7 11
CAMARINES NORTE 25.7 27.6 28.3 27.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.6 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.4   5 3 3
CATANDUANES 24.7 26.3 27.2 26.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.6 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.4   25 33 11
SORSOGON 25.9 27.4 27.9 27.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.7 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.5   25 15 11
AKLAN 26.1 27.9 27.8 27.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4   5 1 3
ANTIQUE 26.6 28.4 27.9 27.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.9 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.6   5 7 11
ILOILO 26.4 28.2 27.9 27.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.7 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5   5 3 11
BOHOL 26.6 28.0 28.2 27.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.8 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6   25 7 3
CEBU 26.8 28.4 28.2 27.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5   5 3 3
EASTERN SAMAR 26.1 27.7 28.3 27.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.5 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.2   25 15 23
LEYTE 26.4 27.8 28.0 27.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.7 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.5   5 7 3
NORTHERN SAMAR 26.0 27.5 28.3 27.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.6 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.4   5 1 1
SAMAR 26.3 27.9 28.4 27.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.7 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.5   5 3 1
SOUTHERN LEYTE 26.4 27.7 27.8 27.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.6 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.5   39 40 23
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 26.8 27.6 27.3 27.2 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.6   39 40 37
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 27.1 27.9 27.5 27.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.8 3.8 3.2 3.3 3.7   39 44 37
BUKIDNON 25.1 26.5 25.8 25.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.5   5 7 11
DAVAO ORIENTAL 26.8 27.8 27.5 27.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.3   39 40 44
NORTH COTABATO 26.8 27.9 27.0 27.1 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 3.9 3.4 3.6 3.7   25 15 11
SARANGANI 27.7 28.4 27.3 27.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.4   25 15 23
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 26.2 27.6 27.8 27.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.7 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.6   25 7 3
AGUSAN DEL SUR 25.9 27.1 27.2 26.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.4   25 33 37
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 26.3 27.6 28.2 27.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.7 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.7   25 15 3
SURIGAO DEL SUR 26.4 27.4 27.9 27.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3   39 40 37
LANAO DEL SUR 24.3 25.4 25.0 24.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.5   25 15 11
MAGUINDANAO 27.6 28.3 27.5 27.6 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 3.8 3.3 3.6 3.6   39 33 23

Note:
DJF means December, January and February
MAM means March, April and May
JJA means June, July and August
SON means September, October and November

Source: PAGASA Website, Accessed date: 28 December 2011

 

 

Table 10: Projected Change in Seasonal Rainfall (%) by Province

Province OBSERVED (1971-2000) 2020 (2006-2035) 2050 (2036-2065) 2085 (2071-2100)   RANK of Province for JJA Projected Change in Seasonal Rainfall (%), Highest Change in Seasonal Rainfall = 1
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON 2020 2050 2085
ILOCOS NORTE 49.8 185.5 1106.4 595.4 -31.0 -18.1 -1.2 -34.2 -42.2 7.7 -1.3 -33.1 -46.1 -30.8 -14.1 -9.8   39 40 44
ILOCOS SUR 17.5 288.8 1575.4 672.9 -15.3 -7.2 3.4 -24.6 -21.4 14.7 1.9 -5.3 -21.6 -13.3 -1.3 18.7   34 31 40
PANGASINAN 19.4 298.0 1608.9 707.8 -27.9 -15.4 2.4 -18.0 -33.2 -14.8 1.4 -2.0 -50.8 -20.5 -1.3 6.1   36 32 40
ABRA 43.5 220.6 1218.9 634.4 -18.5 -11.7 3.5 -28.7 -28.3 17.2 4.2 -26.1 -38.7 -22.8 3.8 -1.4   33 23 35
BENGUET 47.7 422.3 1734.9 931.8 -9.6 -10.6 4.4 -22.8 -15.0 -5.1 -0.9 0.8 -20.4 -13.3 -3.0 23.7   32 38 42
IFUGAO 102.6 321.0 1071.1 724.9 -3.6 -7.7 5.0 -12.5 -2.3 -6.3 3.3 4.4 -6.1 -8.6 12.0 17.6   29 24 22
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 74.8 286.8 1121.1 699.2 -5.6 -8.1 4.8 -18.0 -7.0 -0.9 2.8 1.0 -10.8 -10.8 9.2 23.7   30 27 25
CAGAYAN 284.4 207.7 538.4 832.1 -3.5 -19.9 11.4 -23.9 -8.3 -14.3 3.2 -25.5 -19.9 -24.3 7.5 -10.8   14 26 28
ISABELA 412.2 325.0 530.8 867.0 -11.7 -23.2 13.2 -13.1 -13.7 -12.1 -2.1 -7.1 -29.3 -24.9 7.6 -6.8   11 42 27
NUEVA VIZCAYA 180.9 416.8 1149.8 880.5 -23.5 -13.4 6.9 -17.1 -22.6 -12.0 2.3 -0.4 -34.0 -15.0 5.0 13.9   23 29 32
BULACAN 212.4 288.9 1041.4 842.1 -25.3 -16.9 5.3 -19.9 -34.7 -28.1 3.3 -5.7 -76.1 -28.4 13.2 15.9   28 24 18
PAMPANGA 120.8 320.6 1030.4 785.2 -30.7 -6.3 -1.7 -15.4 -38.6 -17.6 2.0 -2.9 -67.1 -17.4 9.1 4.8   42 30 26
ZAMBALES 40.9 368.0 1793.9 872.0 -21.6 -7.2 4.8 -22.3 -26.3 -14.1 0.1 -7.7 -49.3 -17.6 3.1 -4.3   30 36 38
CAVITE 124.9 242.8 985.7 579.0 -43.8 -9.8 15.6 -15.0 -30.6 -18.9 6.3 -0.7 -56.0 -13.9 7.5 10.1   8 20 28
LAGUNA 629.2 386.8 845.0 1066.5 -31.6 -9.8 10.7 0.0 -31.0 -21.3 0.3 2.1 -44.3 -10.0 6.0 7.0   16 35 30
QUEZON 827.7 382.7 670.0 1229.3 -15.4 -1.7 21.6 2.8 -26.9 -11.7 14.2 -1.6 -33.6 -2.5 24.1 2.6   3 9 8
RIZAL  262.4 241.5 1001.3 821.8 -42.1 -16.6 7.8 -18.6 -34.1 -27.8 -1.2 -7.5 -67.1 -19.7 4.8 14.5   22 39 34
METRO MANILA 107.5 198.5 1170.2 758.7 -53.2 -17.3 6.8 -19.1 -30.7 -26.8 -0.4 -2.6 -65.6 -18.0 3.5 22.4   25 37 36
ALBAY 739.8 386.9 705.8 941.3 -1.5 8.9 28.2 -9.0 -30.8 -14.8 20.4 -3.2 -19.1 -18.8 19.5 11.2   1 2 12
CAMARINES NORTE 1029.6 398.5 565.6 1285.7 -11.7 -0.6 23.6 4.3 -29.5 -25.4 9.3 -15.5 -29.5 -23.1 14.1 -7.4   2 17 17
CATANDUANES 1075.6 512.7 646.3 1199.5 -4.6 17.8 16.1 -8.4 -29.0 -25.4 5.1 -19.7 -27.4 -29.4 3.2 -9.0   7 21 37
SORSOGON 958.1 427.9 660.4 973.6 -4.5 12.5 20.3 -7.0 -27.6 -18.9 18.5 -10.6 -31.6 -17.0 13.0 2.1   4 4 19
AKLAN 431.2 322.7 862.5 883.7 -22.7 5.1 9.5 -5.3 -31.6 -3.0 -1.9 -8.7 -50.5 18.7 2.6 15.2   18 41 39
ANTIQUE 297.9 288.0 995.3 841.4 -34.2 1.1 12.5 -10.2 -43.2 0.4 -3.9 -15.1 -63.3 12.8 -3.4 11.2   12 44 43
ILOILO 324.8 290.6 932.8 828.3 -26.7 -2.0 8.8 1.0 -43.0 -1.6 2.7 0.6 -58.8 15.4 10.5 17.8   19 28 24
BOHOL 376.1 209.6 412.9 514.5 -11.1 9.5 11.3 -6.7 -49.6 -6.8 5.1 -3.4 -43.4 -5.5 5.9 -1.9   15 21 31
CEBU 324.0 228.3 595.1 607.4 -7.8 2.3 9.7 -3.4 -31.4 -1.8 11.7 2.9 -26.1 20.3 18.6 19.6   17 12 13
EASTERN SAMAR 987.0 464.1 559.8 871.4 -11.1 1.4 11.9 -16.8 -27.9 -37.9 21.4 -7.0 -35.2 -35.7 24.4 0.1   13 1 7
LEYTE 689.5 342.0 568.7 725.5 -14.4 -4.4 14.5 -15.3 -27.2 -26.2 18.9 -9.5 -46.7 -28.7 21.1 -4.6   10 3 9
NORTHERN SAMAR 1128.9 462.2 566.8 981.4 -8.9 16.6 16.4 -10.4 -34.1 -32.6 17.3 -16.6 -37.9 -32.7 12.5 -3.8   6 5 20
SAMAR 8898.5 437.0 599.8 879.4 6.0 18.0 17.6 -19.3 -30.8 -33.1 13.6 -15.2 -42.8 -38.9 16.3 2.5   5 10 14
SOUTHERN LEYTE 818.6 362.2 510.6 695.6 -12.4 -0.7 15.0 -2.8 -33.4 -26.0 16.9 1.3 -40.2 -23.9 19.7 0.3   9 6 11
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 294.5 298.7 593.8 663.2 -16.3 14.6 6.6 -3.1 -24.2 17.3 9.6 6.3 -28.4 28.7 15.6 19.5   26 16 16
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 284.1 290.5 597.2 674.1 -7.7 14.6 8.7 -8.6 -15.1 18.3 11.0 0.1 -29.0 22.6 12.0 9.1   20 15 22
BUKIDNON 329.7 335.6 653.8 559.5 -23.4 0.1 -1.5 5.7 -37.2 -9.6 9.1 11.2 -38.9 5.9 28.5 26.6   40 18 4
DAVAO ORIENTAL 827.3 611.8 540.4 599.2 0.3 1.8 -1.6 3.2 -23.2 -14.1 11.6 15.2 -22.5 -7.8 12.3 14.9   41 13 21
NORTH COTABATO 235.4 353.2 572.5 486.0 -13.8 7.4 -2.7 8.1 -24.5 -4.3 7.1 23.6 -6.8 18.7 33.7 43.5   43 19 1
SARANGANI 212.3 212.6 333.6 302.5 -15.4 -4.1 -7.8 10.6 -23.5 -15.2 -2.7 12.2 -7.0 -0.5 5.0 15.3   44 43 32
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 875.7 441.9 460.0 628.9 -8.3 -5.1 3.2 -13.3 -25.7 -23.8 11.8 -18.1 -42.9 -25.2 29.1 -12.4   35 11 3
AGUSAN DEL SUR 963.3 586.4 593.4 694.8 -15.9 -4.4 5.5 2.7 -29.6 -21.3 15.0 11.5 -35.4 -12.7 31.4 22.2   27 8 2
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 1412.0 639.6 448.0 837.3 -12.1 -1.3 8.7 -18.9 -22.5 -31.2 11.5 -9.3 -36.4 -29.6 20.6 -11.4   20 14 10
SURIGAO DEL SUR 1394.0 746.9 534.6 842.5 -9.9 0.1 6.9 -1.8 -23.8 -24.2 15.9 7.1 -27.4 -14.1 24.9 8.1   23 7 6
LANAO DEL SUR 293.8 369.4 661.5 562.2 -20.9 1.4 -0.7 7.6 -27.1 -119.0 1.1 7.1 -36.3 3.6 16.3 15.6   38 33 14
MAGUINDANAO 225.3 399.1 635.3 553.6 -14.6 7.5 -0.2 4.9 -19.5 -0.5 1.1 13.0 -17.4 16.5 25.0 25.5   37 33 5

 

Note:
DJF means December, January and February
MAM means March, April and May
JJA means June, July and August
SON means September, October and November

Source: PAGASA Website, Accessed date: 28 December 2011

 

 

Figure 1. Number of Typhoons that made landfall in Mindanao
1945-2010

 

fig1

 

Source: From the PowerPoint presentation of Albay Governor Joey Sarte Salceda during the NSCB’s Fellowship Lunch among PSS Partners and Advocates, January 6, 2012

 

 

Posted: 09 January 2012

 

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