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Climate Change – Will the Poor Suffer More?
by Dr. Romulo A. Virola ¹
Secretary General, NSCB

Two weeks ago,  America debated excitedly on the “We shall build, we shall recover, we are not quitters” speech of Pres. Obama even as others made chismis about the official White House photo of Michelle which looked really modern and becoming of the First Lady. Many others were however diverted by the tragic, heart-toggling  story of the octomom, who some thought was nuts after she delivered her octuplets from embryo implants, to go with her six other babies. I thought it was America that had gone nuts over her.

Around the time that America riveted around Pres. Obama’s recovery plan, the members of the statistical community were in New York² for the 40th Session of the United Nations Statistical Commission (UNSC). Topics on the agenda included climate change and official statistics, agricultural statistics, energy statistics, environmental-economic accounting, national accounts, social statistics, health statistics, education statistics, employment statistics, gender statistics, the International Comparison Programme, regional  statistical development in Asia and the Pacific, and development indicators including the MDGs. The sessions were excellently chaired by Pali Lehohla, Chief Statistician of South Africa. In addition, under the energetic and innovative leadership of Dr. Paul Cheung, the UN Statistics Division (UNSD) came up with many interesting and enlightening side events like the Seminar on Innovations in Official Statistics, a Learning Centre: Environmental-Economic Accounting, a High Level Forum on Globalization and Global Crisis: The Role of Official Statistics, a Seminar on Energy Statistics: Challenges and Ways Forward, a UNICEF Presentation on Child Mortality Estimates Database, a session on Advances in the Application of Geographical Information System by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and Brazil,  and a Dialogue on Statistical Development with International Agencies.

The agenda of the 40th UNSC meeting once again brings to the fore the many tasks ahead for official statisticians. Indeed, statistics has become a truly interesting and challenging profession from the days when a government statistician was thought to be one whose main job was to make bakod , meaning to tally as was done in past elections³. With the emergence of knowledge-based economies, we are now being challenged by the need to produce "flash indicators" of impending crises, the need to generate timely statistics on how we are coping with the current financial turmoil, and the need to contribute towards a systematic monitoring of the direction and impact of climate change, among others⁴. In fact, during the session on gender statistics, one country delegation wanted to change the agenda item on statistics on Violence Against Women into Violence Against Women and Men! Climate change, I hope, has not made women more violent!

Talking about climate change, the Philippine Statistical System (PSS) thru the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB), has undertaken a number of initiatives to mainstream its monitoring. Under the Philippine Economic-Environmental and Natural Resources Accounting (PEENRA), we have compiled Asset Accounts of five resources: land/soil, mineral, water, forest, and fishery as well as degradation/depletion accounts resulting from economic activities in five sectors: agriculture, fishery and forestry, manufacturing industry, mining industry, electricity generation and transportation services. Unfortunately, the updating of these accounts has become a one-man job in the NSCB because the provisions of Executive Order No. 406⁵ creating a PEENRA unit at the NSCB were never given the necessary funding. In September 2007, we created an Interagency Committee on Environment and Natural Resources Statistics (IAC-ENRS)⁶ to serve as a forum for discussion and resolution of concerns/problems and issues in the compilation of ENR statistics and environmental accounts. We hope the IAC-ENRS will rise to the challenges associated with monitoring climate change.  We have also developed a draft statistical framework⁷  that was presented in Seoul, Korea during the Conference on Climate Change, Development and Official Statistics in the Asia-Pacific Region on 11-12 December 2008. Last week, we made a presentation⁸ on Climate Change and the Poor in the Philippines, where among others, Gov. Joey Sarte Salceda of Albay and Mayor Ronaldo Golez of Dumangas, Iloilo also presented their own efforts in mitigating/adapting to the impact of climate change.  

We did not get a copy of Mayor Golez's presentation but the very efficient Zaldy Santillan of the staff of Gov. Salceda made sure we got his boss’ Albay in Action on Climate Change (A2C2). In his inaugural speech, Gov. Salceda proclaimed climate change adaptation as a governing policy and he now allocates 9% of the regular budget of the province of Albay for climate action. He asserted that “Climate risks are anthropogenic”, “Adaptation is an imperative”, “But mitigation is a duty,” and “Climate action starts with disaster risk reduction”. His change strategy for climate change revolves around making it a goal-revision/re- vision of local milieu, ordaining policies, executing programs and projects,  building institutions, and nurturing partnerships and mobilizing resources. For his Disaster Risk Reduction program, Gov. Salceda received the 2008 Galing Pook Award. I wonder if he has plans to follow the footsteps of his teacher!

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of course cover climate change. While directly it falls only  under Goal 7 on ensuring environmental sustainability, Gov. Salceda’s presentation last week convincingly showed that in fact, climate change is imbedded in all the MDGs!

From our own little presentation, among the points we made are the following:

1. Some evidences of Climate Change in the Philippines⁹

   1.1 From 27 typhoons during the period 2000-2003, the number ominously increased to 39 from 2004-2007 (Table 1 ).

   1.2 The typhoons are getting stronger and stronger¹⁰, especially since the late 1990s. Typhoon signal no. 4 is of course, a fairly recent category (Figure 1).

   1.3 Between 1947-2006, 3 of the 5 strongest tropical cyclones in the Philippines occurred in the past decade (Table 2).

   1.4 Total damages brought about by typhoons increased by 408% from 2003 to 2006 (Table 3).

   1.5 Seven of the 20 deadliest typhoons in the Philippines covering the period 1947-2006 occurred in 1990-2006 (Table 4)!

2. The BoP (bottom of the pyramid) in the Philippines: Statistics on Poverty and Climate Change¹¹

   2.1 CAR, Regions IV-B, VI, I, and V are the five most vulnerable regions to landslide (Table 5).

   2.2 In the most vulnerable regions, the poor are relatively at a greater risk to landslide than the general population (Table 6).

   2.3 ARMM, Regions IX, IV-B, VIII, and V are the 5 most vulnerable regions to a one-meter rise in sea level (Table 7).

   2.4 In the most vulnerable regions, the poor are relatively at a greater risk to a one-meter rise in sea level than the general population (Table 8).

   2.5 Sulu, Palawan, Zamboanga del Sur, Northern Samar, and Zamboanga Sibugay are the five most vulnerable provinces to a one meter rise in sea level. (Table 9).

   2.6 In the most vulnerable provinces, the poor are relatively at a greater risk to a one-meter rise in sea level than the general population (Table 10).

   2.7 The poor of Region V are exposed to heavier rainfall than the poor in NCR (Figure 2)!

3. In addition, based on our work on the Philippine Happiness Index¹² , the environment is not one of the important sources of happiness of Pinoys unfortunately, and, we are unhappiest with government, politics, economy and the environment (Table 11).

If these statistics are right, the poor will most likely suffer more from climate change. Our poverty reduction program must therefore recognize the vulnerability of the poor to climate change and appropriate interventions must be designed accordingly.

There is no question that statistical offices should get involved in the measurement of the impact of climate change. Toward this end, the statistical offices and the DENR and other concerned departments must strengthen their institutional linkages in order to be able to generate timely and relevant statistics on climate change. But statistical capacity of producers as well as users of statistics on climate change, both at the national and subnational levels has to be strengthened.

The PSS obviously can do a lot to contribute not only to monitoring climate change but in general, to evidence-based decision- making and informing decisions in both government and the private sector. Towards good governance. If only the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) would give us more manpower resources!

Happy Women’s Month!

 

 

Reactions and views are welcome thru email to the author at ra.virola@nscb.gov.ph.

 

_________________________

¹ Secretary General of the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) and Chairman of the Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC). He holds a Ph. D. in Statistics from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, U.S.A. and has taught mathematics and statistics at the University of the Philippines. He is also a past president of the Philippine Statistical Association. The author thanks Jessamyn O. Encarnacion, Mark Rex S. Romaraog, Edward P. Lopez-Dee, Noel S. Nepomuceno, and Candido J. Astrologo, Jr., and Simonette A. Nisperos for the assistance in the preparation of the article. The views expressed in the article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the NSCB.

² I was able to participate thanks to the UN Statistics Division.

³ Pres. Arroyo is to sign the P11.3 billion supplemental budget measure into law for the full automation of the 2010 elections, according to presidential adviser for political affairs Gabriel Claudio, http://ph.news.yahoo.com/star/20090306 

⁴ In the recent past, we have been involved in the measurement of governance, human rights, contribution of women to the economy, and progress of societies with happiness as a component. We have just been asked by  the Partnerships in Environmental Management for the Seas of East Asia (PEMSEA) to try to measure the contribution of the maritime sector to the Philippine economy. These are additional challenges that require additional resources.

⁵ The Executive Order No. 406 on “Institutionalizing the Philippine Economic-Environmental and Natural Resources Accounting (PEENRA) System and Creating Units Within the Organizational Structure of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) and National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) was signed by Pres. Fidel V. Ramos on 21 March 1997.

⁶ The IAC-ENRS is chaired by Undersecretary for Policy, Plan and Programs Demetrio L. Ignacio  of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR).

⁷ Gearing a National Statistical System Towards the Measurement of the Impact of Climate Change: The Case of the Philippines by Romulo A. Virola, Estrella V. Domingo, Glenita V. Amoranto and Edward P. Lopez-Dee (http://www.nscb.gov.ph/announce/2008/29Apr_TP200804-ES3-01_ClimateChange.asp). The framework was presented in Korea by Raymundo J. Talento of NSCB. Ms. Zenaida Munoz of DENR also attended the conference in Korea.

⁸Climate Change and the Poor in the Philippines by Romulo A. Virola, Jessamyn O. Encarnacion, & Mark Rex S. Romaraog presented during the Forum organized by the iBoP project of the Ateneo School of Government and Canada’s International Development Research Centre on Coping with Climate Change Risks: Innovations for Community Adaptation to Climate-Related Disasters held at the Eugenio Lopez Center, Antipolo City on 4-5 March 2009.

⁹ See Virola, Romulo A. and Mark Rex S. Romaraog,  Statistically Speaking, August 14, 2008 “Some Things You Better Know About Typhoons in the Philippines”, http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatSpeak/2008/081408_rav_typhoons.asp

¹⁰ A retired PAGASA official pointed out during the presentation last week that the equipment/methodology used in the past to assess the strength of typhoons was not as accurate as it is now. 

¹¹ Using information on areas vulnerable to landslide and to a one-meter rise in sea level cited in The Philippines: A Climate Hotspot, Climate Change Impacts and the Philippines (April 2007) by the Greenpeace Southeast Asia, Climate and Energy Campaign.

¹²“How Happy are Pinoys with Sex” (http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/2007/100807_rav_happiness2.asp) and “Measuring Progress of Societies: Would You Rather Be Rich Or Would You Rather Be Happy” (http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/2007/081307_rav_happiness.asp), Statistically Speaking

 

Posted 09 March 2009.

 

 

Table 1. Number of Tropical Cyclones by Category
in the Philippine Area of Responsibility,
2000-2007

Year	Category
	TD 1/	TS 2/	TY 3/	Total
Total	43	39	66	148
2000	5	5	8	18
2001	6	7	4	17
2002	5	2	6	13
2003	8	8	9	25
2004	5	7	13	25
2005	11	1	5	17
2006	3	6	11	20
2007	0	3	10	13

Notes:
1/ - Tropical depression - tropical cyclones with winds up to 38 miles per hour.
2/ - Tropical storm - tropical cyclones with winds from 39 to 73 miles per hour.
3/ - Typhoon - tropical cyclones with winds at least 74 miles per hour.

Sources: PAGASA and www.typhoon2000.com as cited in “Statistically Speaking… Some Things You Better Know About Typhoons in the Philippines.” Retrieved March 3, 2009 from http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/2008/081408_rav_typhoons.asp

 

Table 2. Five Strongest Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines,
1947-2006

Name	Period of Occurrence	Highest Wind Speed Recorded	Place Observed
1.   REMING (Durian)	November 26-December 1, 2006	320 kph	Virac, Catanduanes
2.   SENING (Joan)	October 11-15, 1970	275 kph	Virac, Catanduanes
3.   ROSING (Angela)	October 30-November 4, 1995	260 kph	Virac, Catanduanes
4.   ANDING (Irma)	November 21-27, 1981	260 kph	Daet, Camarines Norte
5.   LOLENG (Babs)	October 15-24, 1998	250 kph	Virac, Catanduanes

Source: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/5_tc_landfall_2.htm (accessed July 21,2008) as cited in “Statistically Speaking… Some Things You Better Know About Typhoons in the Philippines.” Retrieved March 3, 2009 from http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/2008/081408_rav_typhoons.asp

 

Table 3.Total Damages of Typhoons,
2003 and 2006

2006			2003
Month	Typhoon	Damages	Month	Typhoon	Damages
		(in million PhP)			(in million PhP)
May	Caloy	4,312	July	Harurot	3,233
Sept	Milenyo	7,607	May	Chedeng	538
Nov	Reming	5,449	June	Egay	131
Oct	Paeng	1,298	July	Gilas	67
	Others	1,993		Others	99
		20,659			4,068

Source: Office of Civil Defense, National Disaster Coordinating Council

 

Table 4. Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines,
1947-2006

NAME	PERIOD OF OCCURRENCE	DEATHS
1.   URING (Thelma)A	November 2-7, 1991	5,101 (8,000+)*
2.   NITANG (Ike)	August 31–September 4, 1984	1,363 (3,000)*
3.   TRIX	October 16-23, 1952	995
4.   AMY	December 6-19, 1951	991
5.   SISANG (Nina)	November 23-27, 1987	979
6.   ROSING (Angela)	October 30 – November 4, 1995	936
7.   UNDANG (Agnes)	November 3-6, 1984	895
8.   SENING (Joan)	October 11-15, 1970	768
9.   REMING (Durian)B	November 26–December 1, 2006	754 (1,200)*
10. RUPING (Mike)	November 10-14, 1990	748
11. TITANG (Kate)	October 16-23, 1970	631
12. YOLING (Patsy)	November 17-20, 1970	611
13. KADIANG (Flo)	September 30 - October 7, 1993	576
14. KADING (Rita)	October 25-27, 1978	444
15. ANDING (Irma)	November 21-27, 1981	409
16. WINNIE C	November 28–30, 2004	407
17. INING (Louise)	November 15-20, 1964	400
18. DIDANG (Olga)	May 12-17, 1976	374
19. MONANG (Lola)	December 2-7, 1993	363
20. WELING (Nancy)	October 11-15, 1982	309

Notes:
A - only a Tropical Storm . The unusual high number of deaths was attributed to massive flash floods that swept across parts of Leyte and Negros Occidental. Majority of deaths occurred in the city of Ormoc, Leyte after being overwhelmed a ten feet flashflood in the mid-morning of November 5, 1991, spawned by a continuous, torrential rainfall occurring for a 10-12 hour period (about 140 mm in 6 hours).
B - rains from four earlier typhoons and the southwest monsoon has saturated the loose volcanic material at the slopes of Mayon Volcano from its eruptions since 2001. Heavy downpour from Reming (Durian) further mobilized the volcanic material and spread to wide areas along the slopes of the volcano, reprising the deadly lahars of the Feb.1, 1814 volcanic eruption that buried the famous Cagsawa Church in Albay killing 1,200.
C - a Tropical Depression only as categorized by PAGASA and Japan Meteorological Agency. The towns of Real, Infanta and Gen.Nakar in Quezon and Dingalan in Aurora were swamped by series of log-laden flash floods and landslides after two weeks of continuous rainfall brought by a typhoon and tropical storm that came after one another. These towns occupy the narrow coastline at the foot of the Sierra Madre mountain range that provided them no escape from the deluge but the stormy sea.

* Italicized numbers in parenthesis are UNOFFICIAL death tolls from various agencies other than NDCC where missing persons are included as fatalities.

This summary is taken from NDCC publications, and historical archives.  

Compiled by Dominic Alojado with additional information by David Michael V. Padua of Typhoon2000.com.

Source: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/stats/DeadliestPhilippineTyphoons.htm (accessed July 23, 2008) as cited in “Statistically Speaking… Some Things You Better Know About Typhoons in the Philippines.” Retrieved March 3, 2009 from http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/2008/081408_rav_typhoons.asp

 

Table 5. Area at risk to landslides by Region

Region	Area at risk to landslide
	Land area (in hectares)	Rank
CAR	507,666	1
Region IV-B	486,442	2
Region VI	293,427	3
Region I	280,704	4
Region V	272,279	5
Region VIII	265,558	6
Region XI	255,540	7
Region II	229,112	8
Region IV-A	189,386	9
Caraga	167,516	10
Region X	152,811	11
Region III	152,518	12
Region IX	45,154	13
Region XII	32,345	14
ARMM	4,937	15
NCR	-
Region VII	-
PHILIPPINES	3,335,395

Source: Report on the Geospatial Technology in Disaster Prediction and Agricultural and Natural Resource Management (2004) by Dr. Esteban Godillano of the Department of Agriculture, as cited in The Philippines: A Climate Hotspot, Climate Change Impacts and the Philippines (April 2007) by the Greenpeace Southeast Asia, Climate and Energy Campaign.

 

Table 6. Five Most Vulnerable Regions at Risk to Landslides,
Cumulative Percent Distribution of General Population
and Magnitude of Poor Population

Vulnerability	Region	Vulnerability to landslide
		Gen. population % to Total	Poor Population % to Total
Most vulnerable	CAR	1.8	1.8
2 most vulnerable	CAR and Region IV-B	4.9	6.9
3 most vulnerable	CAR, Regions IV-B and VI	13.0	15.9
4 most vulnerable	CAR, Regions IV-B, VI, and I	18.5	21.2
5 most vulnerable	CAR, Regions IV-B, VI, I, and V	24.6	30.8

Source: NSCB

 

Table 7. Vulnerable to a one meter sea level rise by Region

Region	Vulnerable to a one meter sea level rise
	No. of municipalities	Land area (in sq.m.)	Rank
ARMM	39	137,635,200	1
Region IX	40	81,129,600	2
Region IV-B	64	75,807,900	3
Region VIII	92	75,662,100	4
Region V	86	74,277,000	5
Region VII	68	52,747,200	6
Region VI	68	38,118,600	7
Region XI	20	30,107,700	8
Region IV-A	46	23,805,900	9
Region I	48	20,322,900	10
Region XII	19	16,232,400	11
Caraga	40	12,611,700	12
Region X	31	12,109,500	13
Region II	18	6,439,500	14
Region III	23	4,252,500	15
NCR	1	380,700	16
CAR	0	-
PHILIPPINES	703	661,640,400

Sources of basic data: http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/news/2005/story03-07-05.htm and http://beta.sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/lecz.jsp, as cited in The Philippines: A Climate Hotspot, Climate Change Impacts and the Philippines (April 2007) by the Greenpeace Southeast Asia, Climate and Energy Campaign.

 

Table 8. Five Most Vulnerable Regions to a one meter sea level rise,
Cumulative Percent Distribution of General Population
and Magnitude of Poor Population

Vulnerability	Region	Vulnerability to a one meter sea level rise
		Gen. population % to Total	Poor Population % to Total
Most vulnerable	ARMM	3.7	6.4
2 most vulnerable	ARMM, Region IX	7.4	11.5
3 most vulnerable	ARMM, Regions IX and IV-B	10.6	16.6
4 most vulnerable	ARMM, Regions IX, IV-B, and VIII	15.3	23.6
5 most vulnerable	ARMM, Regions IX, IV-B, VIII, and V	21.4	33.2

Source: NSCB

 

Table 9. Twenty provinces vulnerable to a one meter sea level rise

Province	Vulnerable land area
	In sq.m.	Rank
Sulu	79,728,300	1
Palawan	64,281,600	2
Zamboanga del Sur	37,818,900	3
Northern Samar	33,882,300	4
Zamboanga Sibugay	32,740,200	5
Basilan	30,294,000	6
Cebu	27,888,300	7
Davao del Norte	27,005,400	8
Bohol	23,895,000	9
Camarines Sur	22,680,000	10
Quezon	21,124,800	11
Tawi-tawi	17,390,700	12
Masbate	14,256,000	13
Negros Occidental	13,996,800	14
Eastern Samar	13,672,800	15
Camarines Norte	13,591,800	16
Leyte	10,926,900	17
Capiz	10,748,700	18
Catanduanes	10,643,400	19
Western Samar	10,635,300	20

Sources of basic data: http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/news/2005/story03-07-05.htm and http://beta.sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/lecz.jsp, as cited in The Philippines: A Climate Hotspot, Climate Change Impacts and the Philippines (April 2007) by the Greenpeace Southeast Asia, Climate and Energy Campaign.

 

Table 10. Five Most Vulnerable Provinces
to a one meter sea level rise, Cumulative Percent Distribution
of General Population and Magnitude of Poor Population

Vulnerability	Provinces	Vulnerability to a one meter rise
		Gen. population % to Total	Poor Population % to Total
Most vulnerable	Sulu	0.8	1.1
2 most vulnerable	Sulu and Palawan	1.6	2.2
3 most vulnerable	Sulu, Palawan and Zamboanga	2.6	3.9
4 most vulnerable	Sulu, Palawan, Zamboanga del Sur, and Northern Samar	4.5	5.8
5 most vulnerable	Sulu, Palawan, Zamboanga del Sur,Northern Samar, and Zamboanga Sibugay	5.2	7.0

Source: NSCB

 

Table 11. Level of Importance and Level of Happiness by Source

	Level of Importance				Level of Happiness
	2007		2008		2007		2008
	Average importance	Rank	Average importance	Rank	Index	Rank	Index	Rank
Family	9.45	1	9.12	1	88.46	1	86.97	1
Religion and/or spiritual work	8.59	3	8.55	5	79.81	3	84.23	2
Friends	8.57	4	8.06	8	83.57	2	81.23	3
Love life	8.20	7	8.54	6	79.37	4	76.28	4
Health	8.95	2	9.03	2	78.02	5	76.27	5
Work	7.94	8	8.22	7	70.98	8	73.94	6
Income and financial security	8.30	5	8.97	3	68.83	12	73.42	7
Education	8.25	6	8.64	4	76.74	6	73.31	8
Sex life	6.39	14	7.95	9	72.57	7	73.11	9
Technological know-how	7.17	11	7.64	12	68.91	11	69.12	10
Leisure and sports	6.98	12	6.78	15	70.00	9	67.27	11
Community and volunteer work	6.24	15	7.25	13	69.14	10	66.20	12
Cultural activities	5.88	16	7.20	14	66.61	13	64.58	13
Environment	7.88	9	7.69	11	51.90	14	52.78	14
Economy	7.84	10	7.81	10	49.72	15	48.35	15
Politics	5.84	17	6.56	16	25.49	17	44.64	16
Government	6.53	13	6.44	17	35.49	16	42.86	17

Source: NSCB

 

Figure 1. Strongest Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines
by Highest Wind Speed Recorded

Source: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/stats/StrongestPhilippineTyphoons.htm (accessed July 22, 2008) as cited in “Statistically Speaking… Some Things You Better Know About Typhoons in the Philippines.” Retrieved March 3, 2009 from http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/2008/081408_rav_typhoons.asp

 

Figure 2. Magnitude of Poor Population and Amount of Rainfall, NCR and Region V

Sources:
1/ - NSCB
2/ - PAGASA, based on data for stations in Port Area (MCO), Manila for NCR and Legaspi City, Albay for Region V

 

 

 

 

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